Beijing has issued a warning to Pakistan that terrorism strikes in the future targeting Chinese people engaged in CPEC projects will negatively affect their “all-weather friendship.”
Beijing has chosen to have a difficult conversation with Pakistan's visiting military leadership this month and warn that there would be serious consequences on “milk and honey” relations if Islamabad failed to stop attacks on Chinese nationals and interests in the Islamic Republic after investing upwards of USD 48 billion in 52 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects.
This direct message was sent to Pakistan's ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Nadeem Anjum, earlier this month in Beijing and has been emphasised during Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir's ongoing trip to China.
Terrorist attacks on Chinese people and CPEC projects have been frequent, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan, Occupied Kashmir, and Balochistan. This is due to the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan as well as the political and economic disarray.
The Chinese leadership, including President Xi Jinping, is increasingly concerned that repeated security lapses and the ensuing delays in the execution of CPEC projects will harm not only the reputation of the much-publicized global Belt Road Initiatives (BRI), but will also cast Beijing leadership in a negative light. This is despite China investing enormous sums of US dollars into CPEC and holding Islamabad's hands during ongoing political and economic crisis.
Recently, the Chinese propaganda media has expressed worries about the security of the CPEC projects, a lack of fiscal responsibility, and the squandering of substantial sums of money by state-run Chinese companies in Pakistan. As a last resort to safeguard the safety of Chinese people and CPEC projects, the Chinese leadership is considering the difficult decision of sending PLA contingents in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan.
It is believed that the alarmed Pakistani political establishment, headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, is doing everything possible to assuage Beijing's security concerns. To this end, numerous high-level committees have been established to review security protocols pertaining to Chinese nationals and the CPEC projects in order to ensure Beijing's future project approval.
In an effort to allay Chinese worries after the extremist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacked a Chinese national working on CPEC projects in the unrest-ridden Balochistan region, Pakistan may even try to add the BLA to the UNSC's 1267 Sanctions Committee.
The obstacles facing CPEC stem not just from Pakistan's deteriorating security situation but also from an extraordinary rise in anti-Chinese sentiment, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan. The ongoing unrest in Afghanistan and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)'s departure from the Rawalpindi ceasefire deal in November 2022 have made it possible for terrorists to target high-value CPEC projects as well as Chinese individuals with impunity.
As a result, the majority of CPEC projects are delayed because Chinese nationals are reluctant to work on them because of the presence of extremist groups like the BLA, Islamic State, and Taliban affiliates in the area. This causes a sovereignty issue among the locals because they have already been subjected to brutal state tactics and ineffective political leadership from Pakistan.
Balochistan, where Beijing has made significant investments with a concentration on the special economic zone surrounding Gwadar port, is where the majority of these assaults against Chinese citizens and CPEC projects have occurred.
The much-ignored Balochistan province not only serves as a haven for the terrorist operations of a variety of Balochistani extremist organisations, but it also fosters a strong animosity towards Chinese growth since Beijing is perceived as a sign of subjugation in support of Punjabi Pakistan.
Thousands of women and children engaged in the “Haq Do Tehreek” protests in Gwadar in December 2022 as a result of rising Balochistani discontent over what they saw to be Chinese and Pakistani exploitation of the Balochistani people for the benefit of CPEC projects.
Global and Chinese investors have decided not to support CPEC projects in Pakistan, notably the Special Economic Zone in Gwadar, as a result of security reversals, terrorist attacks, and mounting discontent. Due to the deteriorating security environment and escalating terrorist actions against the projects and their developers, several foreign nations, including Pakistan's close friends in the Middle East, have chosen against investing in CPEC projects.
Even while future CPEC projects in the littoral nations will continue to be challenged by the Islamic State and its affiliates, the Chinese investment is actually causing instability in the area rather than bringing infrastructure and peace to Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan.
For Islamabad and Rawalpindi GHQ, the emergence of Balochistan, Sindh, and Pashtun nationalism in Pakistan as a result of the exploitation of natural resources by CPEC projects is concerning. And President Xi Jinping is aware that a collapsing CPEC will rob the showpiece project of an aspirant superpower of all its lustre.
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